I need a realistic opinion here... please?

Wisconsin @ Madison is a large school, has a good undergrad program, I would say that unless you have a criminal record you should be a shoo in, although be aware, getting in is easy in comparison to getting out. My suggestion is not to worry about it, get on with life, and if you get a better offer from another school, consider it carefully. Of course, you admission will depend upon what school in the university you apply to, so consider that too, if you have applied for the school of education and do not get in consider applying for the school of arts and sciences, then transfer.